Gallup Poll Caveats
A Gallup poll is expected to be released today giving Bush a 54-40 lead over Kerry (ouch!). But before you climb out onto the window ledge, you should be aware of the following caveats that The Peach will be following up on:
1. This poll is a freak among polls. The other credible polling outfits show any Bush "bounce" fading rapidly into history and the electorate moving consistently toward Kerry. E.g., the Pew Center's most recent poll had the candidates neck and neck at 46-46 among registered voters. IBD finds the candidates tied as well, and Harris Interactive and Strategic Vision both give Kerry a slight edge at 48-47 and 49-45 respectively.
2. Gallup explictly includes a higher proportion of self-identified Republicans in its sample than self-identified Democrats. They must think this somehow more closely represents the electorate, but apparently no one else does.
3. It's The Peach's understanding that Gallup is now controlled by a far-right CEO who has contributed in a big way to Conservative causes. Bush's lead in their polls a coincidence? We think not, but will investigate this further.
In the meantime, cheer up. It looks like our guy is pulling even.